This winter, the extra seats are not where you would expect
The winter airline season opens on 25 October 2026 and runs until 27 March 2027. If you are chasing sunshine without a long-haul flight, the useful information is not the list of warm destinations — that barely changes from year to year — but where the airlines have added seats. That is where the lead-in fares, the new frequencies and the traveller's bargaining room all sit.
This year the answer is clear: Morocco is absorbing most of the short-haul growth, Egypt is entering the picture, and the Canary Islands — the historic reflex for European winter sun — remain surprisingly flat.
Morocco, the main beneficiary
In early August, Ryanair announced what it called a record winter programme: 5.3 million seats across 156 routes, 17 of them new, linking 13 Moroccan airports to 14 European countries. That is roughly 580,000 additional seats, about +12% against the previous winter. Opening a base at Rabat — the airline's fifth in the country — takes its Morocco-based fleet to 16 aircraft. Rabat gains seven new routes, Marrakech and Agadir five each.
Transavia confirms the shift
Transavia France, for which Morocco is the second-largest market, is advertising more than 611,000 seats on its Moroccan routes this season, with a programme that can reach 160 weekly flights across 25 routes. Two major carriers pushing capacity into the same country at the same time is the most price-friendly scenario a traveller can hope for.
Egypt enters the radar, with one caveat
The season's new development comes from Egypt. easyJet has opened flights to Cairo — not the main airport, but Sphinx International (SPX), west of the city, from 2 September 2026, within a French programme counting nine new routes. Transavia is opening five new routes from Orly and the regions, one of them to Egypt, with a first flight scheduled for 30 October 2026.
This is not short-haul
Let us be precise, because the gap matters when travelling with children: Egypt is not under four hours from Paris. Cairo sits closer to 4h30, the Red Sea beyond that. What is opening up is a "guaranteed sunshine" option, not short-haul in the strict sense — for those willing to accept an extra hour in the air in exchange for a far more reliable January sky.
In the Canaries, flat traffic is itself a signal
The archipelago remains the benchmark, but its numbers describe a season without momentum. According to Aena's figures, Canary airports handled 36.3 million passengers in 2026 through the end of August, -0.2% against the same period in 2025. August alone passed 4.7 million passengers, up just 0.8%.
A two-speed archipelago
The airport-level detail says more than the total. In August, Gran Canaria led with 1,334,497 passengers (+3.1%) and La Palma posted the strongest relative gain, +7.2% at 148,857 passengers. Tenerife South, by contrast, fell 4.2% to 1,064,586 passengers.
In practice: do not treat "the Canaries" as a single block. Declining traffic at Tenerife South means seats to fill, and therefore promotions are more likely there than on Gran Canaria, where demand is holding. Compare island by island. Also worth noting from the regions: easyJet launches Bordeaux–Gran Canaria with two weekly flights from 28 October 2026, advertised from €40 one way.
The honest ranking: flight time against temperature
"Winter sun" lists cheerfully mix destinations 2h30 away with others five hours out. Here are the orders of magnitude from Paris, with average daytime temperatures from November to February taken for what they are: averages, not promises.
One reminder before booking: a mild temperature does not mean weak radiation. In the Canaries and on Morocco's Atlantic coast, the UV index stays high in midwinter — sunscreen and a hat are as necessary as in August, and more so for children. Cabin air is also very dry and dehydrating, an effect alcohol makes distinctly worse on a four-hour flight: water, regularly, remains the best habit on board.
Under three and a half hours
- Malta — about 2h45 to 3h. Around 21 °C in November, then 16 to 17 °C in deep winter. Mild, but no longer a swimming destination in January.
- Marrakech — about 3h. Warm days and decidedly cold nights: the swing regularly catches out under-equipped families.
- Agadir — about 3h20. The best compromise of the group: available records put it around 22 to 25 °C from November to February, with very consistent sunshine.
Between three and a half and four and a half hours
- Madeira — about 3h45 to 4h. Between 19 and 22 °C in Funchal across the winter. The island suits hiking better than the beach; the levadas are walkable year-round with children who can cover distance.
- Canary Islands — a little over 4h, not "under four hours" as many lists claim. Around 18 °C on average in January and February on Gran Canaria, with sea temperatures around 19 to 20 °C in December and January.
- Cyprus — about 4h15 to 4h30. Close to 23 °C in November, then 17 to 19 °C. Be aware that some coastal hotels close in January and February.
Two dates to watch before you book
The 17–21 October strike notice
A national strike notice covers cabin and flight crews from Saturday 17 to Wednesday 21 October 2026, with Air France, Transavia France and Corsair most exposed. As of 6 October the action was being maintained despite progress reported by the union coalition. Cancellation schedules generally only settle 48 to 72 hours before the deadline: if your departure falls in that window, watch your notifications rather than the prices.
The 25 October changeover
Most of the new routes above do not exist until 25 or 30 October. A search engine queried today for a December departure already shows the winter programme; queried for next week, it still shows the old one. Check the effective date before concluding that a route does not exist.